Yankees Get Vazquez

New York increases the lead in talent between them and the Red Sox by acquiring Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves for outfielder Melky Cabrera and prospects Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. The Yankees will also get lefty pitcher Boone Logan.

The Braves get a decent outfielder who can even be called a utility outfielder in Cabrera. He might start in Atlanta. Dunn is a 24-year-old lefty pitcher who racks up the strikeouts. He is MLB-ready but will likely spend some more time in AAA before coming up in 2010. Vizcaino is the key to the deal due to his enormous upside. Arodys, who just turned 19 last month, possesses incredible command of the strikezone to go along with strong strikeout numbers. A 3.47 K/BB in Low-A at his age is what makes him such an attractive prospect. He throws in the low-90s with a great curveball and also throws a change-up. Scouts think his velocity will grow as he matures.

Vazquez is one of the most durable and reliable starters of the decade. He has thrown 200+ innings for eight of the last nine years (198 IP in the exception). His career K/9 has been around 8 while his BB/9 has hovered near 2. Vazquez has always been a stats geek’s favorite. He has terrific peripherals but he had never been able to have an ERA that represented them. Last season, however, his 2.87 ERA thanks to the National League pitching boost was among the best. I’d expect an ERA around 3.50 next year with similar peripherals. Boone Logan is a long-reliever at best. He gives up far too many hits. He could start the year as the Yankees mop-up guy.

Jays Land Morrow

News came out last night that the Toronto Blue Jays were set to  acquire flamethrower Brandon Morrow for reliever Brandon League and a prospect. While several moronic Mariner fans were certain the prospect was going to be someone like Brett Wallace or Travis Snider, I’m sure they were disappointed to discover it was only Johermyn Chavez.

Chavez is a raw, borderline 5-tool outfielder that is in the lower levels of the Blue Jays farm system. Looking into his minor league stats is misleading as Chavez has plenty of room for improvement that many scouts believe he will make. He projects as a stellar offensive player. League came up to the Majors in 2005 as a guy who could hit 100 mph on the radar gun at will. After having no success with that approach, he revamped his repertoire and dropped some velocity on his fastball in favor of sinking/tailing action. He returned in 2008 with his new approach and dominated hitters. He induced groundballs on 66% of the balls put in play. He battled injuries to start 2009, and when he came back he started to strike people out again. His 4.58 ERA for the year is misleading when you see his 9.16 K/9 and 2.53 BB/9.

Morrow projects as a top of the rotation starting pitcher. The Jays haven’t commented on whether they see him as a closer or starter just yet, however. I believe they’ll try him out in the rotation. Morrow has a laundry list of injury issues that he’s looking to overcome. He throws a change-up, slider and an elite fastball — the kind that even if you know it’s coming or where it’s coming, you’ll have trouble hitting it.

If the Mariners’ intentions were for Morrow to just be a reliever then this is a decent haul for them if League can pitch like he did in 2008 and 2009. Chavez is pretty far away from the Majors still. With this trade, the Blue Jays look determined to be relevant in baseball as soon as 2011.

Derek can be reached at derek@peteprose.com

Michael Taylor’s career as a Toronto Blue Jay is likely to be a short one. ESPN’s Buster Olney is reporting that upon the completion of the blockbuster deal between the Phils, Jays, and Mariners, that the Blue Jays will immediately swing Taylor to the Oakland Athletics in return for 1B/3B prospect Brett Wallace. Let’s talk about Wallace.

Brett was the best pure hitter of his draft class. However, his body and questionable position dropped him to the Cardinals. He was drafted as a third-baseman but could end up at first-base because of poor lateral range according to Keith Law. He has plenty of arm strength and can field the ball in front of him just fine. The biggest part of Wallace’s game is his bat. He makes pitchers pitch to him and has a great eye making him an OBP machine. His power will come. Don’t be fooled by the low SLG numbers from last season.

A deal for Wallace would either mean the end of Edwin Encarnacion or Lyle Overbay. I would imagine Wallace would be playing first-base in Toronto considering Overbay’s departure after 2010 (or perhaps sooner).

Why would Billy Beane give up a player that sounds like an ideal piece for him to build a team with? Well, they have quite a logjam at that position and Michael Taylor is still a hell of a player. The Blue Jays also have a bit of a logjam in the outfield with Lind, Wells and Snider already out there.

Derek can be reached at derek@peteprose.com

So Long Harry Leroy Halladay

After roughly ten seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, Roy Halladay has finally gone south of the border. Widely regarded as the best pitcher in all of baseball, Halladay will  provide the Phillies with a bonafide ace for several years and not just for one more season like Cliff Lee would have. “Doc” has pitched over 220 innings for the past four seasons straight. He has had at least 16 wins in each of those years despite being on a team that has only reached as high as second place once during that span. Over the past two seasons Roy has had a sub 2.80 ERA in the toughest division in baseball. Let’s get to the details.

The following is what we know as of 2 AM on December 15th, 2009. Here’s what Ken Rosenthal tweeted about the latest details on the trade:

To the Blue Jays:

SP Kyle Drabek (PHI), OF Michael Taylor (PHI), C Travis d’Arnaud (PHI)

To the Phillies:

SP Roy Halladay (TOR), P Phillipe Aumont (SEA), OF Tyson Gillies (SEA), Unnamed player

To the Mariners:

SP Cliff Lee (PHI)

Toronto Blue Jays

This is a really good haul for the Blue Jays. Outfielder Michael Taylor is a 5th round selection of the Phillies. The now 23-year-old was 6″6 and 260 lbs on draft day. He has a plus arm and seems to be destined for right-field in the Majors. While his range isn’t great, he should be able to stick there. He has an above-average ability to draw a walk and huge power. He will be able to hit for average and power. One scout says that Taylor was the best minor league player he saw last season. Taylor could probably be with the Jays in 2010, but with their current outfield depth he’ll likely be a midseason call-up or start in 2011.

Kyle Drabek is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and was the Phillies’ #2 ranked prospect last season. Drabek is a four-pitch pitcher who throws a mid-90s fastball with movement, a slider, a filthy 12-6 curveball, and a developing change-up. His upside is a top-of-the-rotation starter but he is probably a year or two out depending on how he fairs next season.

The final piece to the trade gives the Jays another catching prospect in Travis d’Arnaud. Over the years Toronto has had many catching prospects considered to be the “next one”. Guillermo Quiroz, Curtis Thigpen, Robinson Diaz and now even J.P. Arencibia are all looking like flops. Travis was a player the Jays were looking to select in the draft before Philadelphia took him one player ahead of them. He’s a really good defensive catcher (both receiving and throwing). He’s good enough to play an infield spot but too good behind the plate for a move. His minor league numbers don’t do justice to his developing bat. He projects as an above-average hitting catcher and should turn out to be a good one. However, we must remember what the Jays system seems to do to catchers.

Overall, the Jays did a good job here. They got a premier pitching prospect and positional prospect while addressing another need (catching prospect).

Cliff Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 79.2 IP for the Phillies in 2009

Philadelphia Phillies

Many seem skeptical of the Phillies here, but I see nothing but positives. Let’s first review what they got, and then I’ll tell you why later.

Roy Halladay. I can’t say much more here. While the NL East is the toughest place to pitch in the NL, it ain’t no AL East. Doc should dominate the National League. I can’t wait to see how this guy pitches in the postseason too.

Phillipe Aumont is a tough guy to project. Some believe that he was switched to a relief role in the Mariners’ system to hurry him to the Majors and that he can be a starter. His upside is enormous. He could turn out to be better than Kyle Drabek or he could just end up as a dangerous late-inning reliever. Another factor that may cause him to end up as a reliever is his lack of plus pitches. He only has one — a mid-90s sinking fastball that he consistently throws at the bottom of the strikezone. He also throws a slider and change-up, but both pitches have to come a long way for him to be a really effective starter.

Tyson Gillies is a second Canadian going to Philly in the deal. Gillies is an outfielder with a quick, compact swing that has leadoff man written all over him. He has great speed and can draw a walk. He will never hit for power at the Majors, however. His .341/.430/.486 line at High-A last season was impressive. His upside is an every day leadoff hitter and his speed will garner him a spot as a fourth outfielder at worst.

Seattle Mariners

Yeah…they got Cliff Lee. He has been around. If they only get one year out of him this has the potential suck big time depending on the compensation picks. If they resign him then they’re probably going to overpay. Still, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee at the top of your rotation shows you mean business.

Winners and Losers

This is how I see it. The Phillies got downgrades in terms of prospects when they essentially swapped Drabek for Aumont and Taylor for Gillies. However, the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay swap is underrated in my eyes. Roy Halladay is a lot better than Cliff Lee then people think he is. When we think Cliff Lee we remember his dominant start to his tenure as a Phillie and his incredible playoff performance. Don’t get me wrong, his 2008 numbers were incredible. But we all know he isn’t that good. That was one season. He was good last season, but not in Halladay territory. Now factor in that Lee was likely a goner after this season and not only do you have a better pitcher in Halladay for next season, but you’ll have him for at least three more. Also, if we look closer at the trade, it was actually two separate trades as the Mariners didn’t send anyone to Toronto. Why didn’t the Phillies keep both Lee and Halladay? Their payroll would balloon to a height they cannot afford so they restocked their system.

The Blue Jays completed what they set out to do here. Their system immediately shoots up the rankings and they have a bright future to look forward to if they continue to build intelligently. Also, good job not taking on J.A. Happ from the Phillies in a deal as he’s already 27 with a fluke season under his belt. Ditto to that of the Angels’ Joe Saunders. How will the Jays move their lineup around to accommodate Taylor? I’d say Adam Lind either goes to DH or returns to his original position of first-base when Lyle Overbay departs after 2010. Top prospect Travis Snider could find himself as a regular left-fielder while Michael Taylor fills the open spot in right-field. Vernon Wells will unfortunately man center-field and be piss-poor defensively.

Vernon Wells really sucks

The Mariners don’t give up their top prospects here and have a legit 1-2 combo at the top of their rotation to take on the Angels. Aumont as a reliever to the Mariners is a bit disappointing considering his upside as a starter. Gillies is pretty replaceable as a prospect. Decent job by the Mariners here.

So who won this? I can’t say any team did bad in this trade. But who did the best? The Phillies and Jays, in my opinion. It’s hard to put one of those teams first because they both had different goals that they accomplished. However, the Phillies got Roy Halladay and are that much closer to another World Series while keeping their #1 prospect and refilling with slight downgrades. They win this trade. The Jays come in second with the good group of prospects they grabbed while doing something that had to be done — trading their ace. The Mariners did alright. But like I said, Lee walks or they overpay him. They’d be wise to let him walk and get a 1st round pick and a supplemental pick where they could potentially draft two players as good or better than Aumont and Gillies. After all, the draft is an absolute crapshoot.

Other Notables

• Angels signed Hideki Matsui to a 1 year, $6.5M deal

• Red Sox signed John Lackey to a 5 year, $85M contract…yikes

• Boston also signed Mike Cameron to a 2 year contract worth roughly $15.5M

Derek Boucher can be reached at derek@peteprose.com

There have been no signings or trades since my last post here. However, the rumours continue to come in about the same players. Here’s what you need to know:

• Roy Halladay’s preferred destinations are the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, or Phillies

• Florida Marlins might be looking to deal Josh Johnson

• Bud Selig will reportedly step down after the 2012 season

• Seattle and Texas have contacted Marco Scutaro about playing third-base

• We’ve touched on how Scutaro prefers the Red Sox, but we also learn he’s leaning towards the Dodgers

Derek Boucher can be contacted at derek@peteprose.com

Day 2 & 3 of free agency was about as slow and boring as the first one. But, for what it’s worth, here’s everything you need to know about the last two days:

• Oakland Athletics signed 29-year-old third-baseman Dallas McPherson to a minor league contract

• Yankees are willing to deal one of Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain to acquire the services of Roy Halladay, but want to keep future center fielder Austin Jackson

• Ken Rosenthal says Johnny Damon is looking for a contract similar to Bobby Abreu’s

• Halladay has now made it clear that he intends to explore free agency following the 2010 season with the Blue Jays

• Yankees are more interested in Damon than Hideki Matsui

• In more Halladay news, we can rule out the Chicago Cubs due to lack of payroll space

Derek Boucher can be reached at derek@peteprose.com

Major League Baseball’s free agency officially began today. While there are seldom big moves done on the first day, there are always rumblings of what may happen. Below is a summary of the news you need to know from today:

• Chicago Cubs start it all by signing 31-year-old lefty reliever John Grabow to a 2 year, $7.5M contract ($3.75M average annually)
• Chicago White Sox and Omar Vizquel are nearing a deal with Vizquel likely settling in as a backup in Chicago
• The Cubs’ Milton Bradley continues to be tossed around in trade rumors
• Blue Jays are shopping Roy Halladay and have put in a call to the Dodgers
• Jason Bay rejected a Red Sox contract offer yesterday but continues talks with them as well as other teams

So, as I said, a very slow first day of free agency. What do you think it would take your team to land Roy Halladay? Let me know in the comments section of this page.

Derek Boucher can be reached at derek@peteprose.com

Earlier this month, Mariano Rivera threw a 3-2 cutter to the Phillies’ Shane Victorino, who then grounded out to Robinson Cano. For the Yankees, it was the end of a long journey. 177 games that all began when newly signed ace C.C. Sabathia took the hill in Baltimore to start the season were all over. The Yankees were finally at the top of the baseball world once again. While their fans sang songs of joy, the fans of other teams were singing to a different tune – a salary cap. The Yankees spent nearly $70 million more on their roster than any other Major League Baseball team in 2009, a trend that we have seen every year for as long as we can remember.

My Stance on a Salary Cap

While I find many positives in a system where a salary cap exists, I can find just as many negatives barring a complete restructuring of the league. My stance on a salary cap in baseball is that I don’t believe it would work, nor do I believe  it would be helpful.

Before you call me a Yankee, Mets, Cubs or Red Sox fan and close the article in disgust, I want you to know I take this stance as a die hard Toronto Blue Jays fan. I’m a fan of a team that would have made the playoffs in many other divisions a few times in the past years if it weren’t for the enormous payrolls of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Shouldn’t I be the guy at the front of the line when it comes to arguing for a salary cap? Absolutely. But I’ll tell you why I’m not.

After several seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, J.P. Ricciardi was let go after a failure overcome the Red Sox and Yankees

Salary Cap Positives

These are pretty simple. We’ve heard these time and time again. Most points are nothing less than the obvious.

• Equal opportunity for all teams come free agency
• Fair chance for teams to resign homegrown players
• If owners are paying players less, we might see cheaper ticket prices
• The difference between #1 on the payroll ranks and #30 wouldn’t be $170 million

Salary Cap Negatives

Most of the people who are pro-salary cap don’t realize these. These are all huge deals and would probably require a full scale restructure of Major League Baseball. Let’s pretend that there is a salary cap of $100 million. The average payroll of an MLB team in 2009 was around $90 million. Let’s just think of the Yankees in this scenario. They’ll have around $100 million more to work with.

• The MLB draft would become a joke as the Yankees would be going overslot on every player
• Players would recognize this and may refuse to sign with certain teams knowing they might get double from the Evil Empire
• The Yankees would be able to lure every top scout and top executive in baseball to their organization
• International free agents would all belong to the richest franchises

You might not think the four points above mean a whole lot, but by adding a salary cap you would be getting rid of the primary method the smaller market teams use to get on the level of a big spender like the Yankees, Mets, Cubs or Red Sox.

Why a Salary Cap is Useless

Well, I don’t mean completely useless. However, the problem isn’t exactly the enormous amount of money some teams have but the fact that some owners are just unwilling to spend money on their team. The money is there for them, but they refuse to use it.

A good example of this was the season that the Florida Marlins received almost as much money from revenue sharing (coming from luxury tax) as they spent on their entire roster. In fact, the Yankees were penalized by the luxury tax in 2006 and paid a total of $26 million. The Marlins payroll in 2006 was $21.1 million on opening day.

Why a Salary Cap Won’t Exist

Where do you even begin here? First of all, the idea has been proposed several times. If it were going to happen, it would have gotten further than just being an idea by now. Most of all, think of it this way:

If you’re a Major League Baseball player, why would you agree to take a pay cut? So that the owners can make even more money? Not every team has ownership as great as the New York Yankees. We’ve already covered some owners’ unwillingness to spend money that they have. Many owners make significant profit on small payroll teams. They run it like a business. Why would you take a pay cut to increase their profits? You already know that the profits they currently make aren’t going into the team, so what makes you think any further profits would?

The Florida Marlins won the World Series in 1997 and 2003

Money Doesn’t Equal Success

Championship parody in baseball is present. Let’s look at the last ten years (since 2000) in comparison to the other leagues with salary caps:

• The NFL has 6 different winners
• The NBA has 5 since 2000
• The NHL has 7 (salary cap introduced in 05/06)
• The MLB has had 8 different winners

Let’s not forget that the Minnesota Twins are competitive year in and year out while being amongst the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Florida Marlins won two World Series (‘97, ‘03) with a small payroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks did so too (‘01). At the start of the decade, the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics were great teams that were also built on payrolls near the bottom of the league.

The A’s won 85+ games six years in a row, including two years of 100+ wins. Take a look at the Tampa Bay Rays who overcame the AL East’s financial juggernauts and snagged a playoff spot in 2008.

“It would be malpractice not to do research. Of course, it would also be malpractice to make a foolish trade.”

- Billy Beane

Success is a product of the organization as a whole. It is the organizations that are open-minded to the revolutionary baseball statistics. It is the front office that makes the right trades for the right reasons. It is the general managers and scouts who know what amateur draftee to take every June. It is about the owner who is dedicated to winning, not solely making profit.

Derek Boucher can be reached at derek@peteprose.com