Steve Phillips is back in the news, and he’s managing to make a fool of himself yet again. The much-maligned former GM of the New York Mets had his judgment questioned regularly when he running the Mets, but landed on his feet with a prime analyst gig at ESPN. Of course, that went away last year when it was revealed he had been carrying on an extramarital affair (not his first) with an intern at the worldwide leader. Phillips resurfaced shortly thereafter with what is evidently a very well-paid assignment for AOL Fanhouse. As of today, he’s still the baseball “insider” at that site, but let’s just say his presence there isn’t exactly enhancing Fanhouse’s already struggling reputation.

Phillips is in the news this time thanks to what may have been some of the most preposterous commentary I’ve ever heard. He was a guest with Mike Francesa on the veteran sportstalk host’s WFAN program on Monday. To make a long story short, Phillips opined that he thought it would be a good idea for the Washington Nationals to try and obtain Astros star pitcher Roy Oswalt, and offered the opinion that the Nats should tempt Houston with a package including the hottest prospect in the game, one Stephen Strasburg. We never did find out who else Phillips was suggesting the Nationals should include with Strasburg, as Francesa wisely cut him off before he made an even bigger fool of himself.

Phillips stated that if the Nationals are trying to win right now, Oswalt is a better short term add than Strasburg will be when he’s called up. That’s probably the only thing he has any chance of being right about. Oswalt is still a very good pitcher and for this season, he’s likely to post a better line than Strasburg. The rookie sensation will certainly be protected in terms of his innings and pitch counts, whereas Oswalt isn’t operating with any such constraints. But that’s as far as it goes in a defense of what Phillips said.

The assertion by Phillips that Oswalt is one of the top five pitchers in the game today is nuts. Oswalt is certainly still a legit #1 starter, but he isn’t anywhere near the top five. Moreover, Oswalt has seen his innings decline in each of the last four seasons while his ERA has risen. Oswalt’s 2-6 ledger this season is completely misleading, as he’s pitched terrific ball. His K rate is back to where it used to be and even with the crappy record, he’d almost certainly be Houston’s All-Star representative if that team was being named today. But Oswalt will be 33 come August and I’ll be interested to see if he can maintain his outstanding work to date this season once the innings begin to add up.

The thought Phillips expressed that the Nationals would know what they’re getting with Oswalt while Strasburg is an unknown quantity is pretty outlandish. Unknown quantity? Strasburg is an absolute can’t miss star. He throws close to triple digits regularly, everything has nasty late movement and his command is already impeccable. Okay, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. But Strasburg is close. As for the comparison to the ill-fated Mark Prior, their mechanics are not the same, so Phillips was way off base on that analysis. Prior regularly threw across his body, which can lead to arm problems. Strasburg was only doing this from the stretch position, and from what I’ve seen on TV, he’s already pretty much fixed that. Besides, Prior’s problems may well have come from being overtaxed too early in his career with innings and pitch counts, and the Nationals are not making the same mistake. That’s not to say that Strasburg can’t turn into Prior or Ben McDonald, but I’d be happy to take my chances he’ll be just fine.

I can go on forever about how Phillips is clueless in terms of the comparative on-field value of Oswalt vs. Strasburg. But what no one seems to be mentioning is another aspect of running a baseball team where Phillips exposed himself as a bit of a moron. That’s the business side of the game. Hey Steve, how many tickets do you think Roy Oswalt is going to sell this season, not to mention in forthcoming campaigns? No knock on Oswalt, but I’m pretty sure no team’s switchboard is blowing up with requests for tickets just because he’s starting a game. But we’ve already seen the buzz for AA and AAA tix when Strasburg is working and it’s going to be even more dramatic when he gets to The Show. This kid is going to be a cash cow for Nats at home, as well as for every appearance he makes on the road.

One thing I’ve learned over the years is to never be 100% positive that I’m right and the other side is wrong on any issue. Sally Jenkins wrote a piece for Sports Illustrated last year where she predicted that Tiger Woods might not eclipse the major title record currently owned by Jack Nicklaus. Practically everyone labeled her as a complete idiot for taking such a stance. Of course, much has taken place in Tiger’s life subsequently, and perhaps now that thought is not so crazy. But it took an incredible series of bizarre events to even put a scintilla of doubt into anyone’s mind. It’s much the same with the Phillips take on Strasburg-Oswalt. There’s always a possibility he could be dead on target. But it’s also a huge long shot and for someone who is purported to be a baseball insider, all Phillips really did was convince most observers that just because an individual is labeled as an expert doesn’t mean he is one.
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Tuesday night was about as lousy as it gets for me, as I struck out on the diamond. And no, I did not get my advice for the evening from Steve Phillips. The good news is that those nights have been few and far between this season, and I’m totally confident that I’ll roar right back with a good Wednesday card. My daily free play can be obtained on a recorded message at 1-888-712-6800 and for information on getting my personal selections, I can be reached via email at cokin@cox.net.

I ran through the week’s prospect recalls in yesterday’s blog. There should have been one more name on that list. But it wasn’t an omission on my part. No, the responsibility for this one falls on the major league team that still hasn’t brought up its best young player. And by delaying the inevitable, they’re only hurting themselves.

I’m talking about the San Francisco Giants and their continued procrastinating in recalling Buster Posey. Okay, so he’s still refining his work behind the plate and he’s not knocking everything out of the park at Fresno. Could he benefit from another month or so at AAA? Sure, but the fact is the Giants can’t afford to let him languish any longer. Not if the Giants want to avoid wasting a great pitching staff and barely staying above the .500 plateau in the NL West.

Wow, the San Francisco staff is pure dynamite. Tim Lincecum is one of the top three pitchers in the game. Matt Cain is steady as a rock, Barry Zito is turning back the clock and pitching very well, Jonathan Sanchez is no longer just a guy with a live arm and potential. That’s a brilliant quartet, and with a bullpen that’s at the very least adequate and probably better than that, the Giants need to make whatever moves they’re able to in order to maximize their ability to keep the opponent off the scoreboard. But with an offense that’s just short of embarrassing, San Francisco is only one game above .500 and their prospects of putting together a big run are getting slimmer by the day.

I don’t mean to denigrate Juan Uribe, but if he’s your team leader in RBI, it’s pretty clear there’s a problem. Uribe is also tied for the team lead in home runs with five, sharing the top perch with Aaron Rowand. Rowand is a good player, but he’s not a slugger, and it’s also worth noting that he is the co-leader in HR despite serving a stint on the disabled list already. Pablo Sandoval is, as expected, the batting average leader, but even Kung Fu Panda is not exactly tearing it up at just .282. The Giants are also not much at drawing walks, so the team is sporting an on base percentage that’s pretty bad.

Buster Posey will not singlehandedly rectify the offensive miseries of the Giants. But his bat is absolutely big league ready. He can catch up with his behind the plate studies later on. For now, put Posey at 1B and give him a chance to produce. Aubrey Huff is a defensive liability wherever he ends up, but with Mark DeRosa still injured, I’d stick Huff in right field and hope for the best.

If I’m making out the Giants lineup tomorrow, I’m bringing up Posey and putting him in the #2 spot with Andres Torres leading off. Posey has a good eye, and he’ll get some good pitches to hit batting in front of Sandoval. The team does not have a true cleanup hitter, so while it may sound ridiculous, I guess I’d slot Uribe in the fourth spot. Hey, he’s been their best run producer and he’s therefore deserving of a key spot in the lineup. Rowand would hit fifth, followed by Huff and Bengie Molina. I’d slot either Freddie Sanchez or Edgar Renteria eighth, with Uribe shifting between SS and 2B depending on which of the two old vets is in the lineup that day. Nate Schierholtz would be the fourth OF and would be an ideal late inning sub for the defensively challenged Huff. Once DeRosa returns, he’s back to being what he used to be, which is a utility guy who can play a variety of positions, and he’d be very busy in that role with the Giants.

With or without Posey, this is a weak offense, but it’s at least a little more substantial with Posey. The defense is not much good now, and I’m not sure there’s much that can be done about that presently. So the idea is to give the awesome pitching staff whatever help is available and try to cash in playing a very winnable NL West.
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After not playing any games last night (Red Sox did win as the free opinion) it’s back to business tonight with what looks like a very solid card. Get info on obtaining my personal plays directly from me on a daily basis. Just drop me a line at cokin@cox.net and we’ll discuss the possibilities!

Monday is prospect callup rundown day, and thanks mostly to the Milwaukee Brewers, I’ve got a pretty good handful of guys to take a look at. Included is a brief synopsis of the strengths and weaknesses of each player, along with a fantasy baseball recommendation. Note that in virtually all cases, unless otherwise noted, I’m talking only for those in keeper or auction leagues, rather than annual leagues. By the way, for those of you who have never gone the auction route where you actually get to build an organization and budget maintenance is part of the game, it completely blows away the annual leagues. By comparison, the annuals are just plain boring, and if your team happens to fall out of the race, there’s really not much to hold your interest. That’s rarely the case in any quality auction keeper league.

Jason Donald was called up the Indians to replace the injured Asdrubal Cabrera. Donald was a third round pick by the Phillies in 2006 out of Arizona. He was moved to Cleveland last season as part of the big Cliff Lee swap. Donald’s stock had risen considerably prior to 2009, but a poor season with the bat, somewhat mitigated by injuries, made him expendable. Donald is capable of hitting the occasional homer and I like the fact that he was stealing lots of bases at AAA prior to being called up. I’m not sure he projects as a full-time starter down the road, but at the very least he should become a decent utility player with his ability to play three infield positions. In most auction leagues, there’s a need for a cheap end of the roster plug-in type and Donald’s versatility makes him worth an investment of a dollar or two.

Oswaldo Navarro is up with the Houston Astros. Navarro was hitting pretty well at AAA prior to to his recall and was actually flashing a bit of power there with a trio of home runs. Navarro got a cup of coffee with the Mariners back in ’06. He hasn’t really shown much with the bat, so the uptick at Round Rock is a little interesting. But it’s also a small sample, and Navarro profiles more as a defensive reserve. Not much upside that I can see from a fantasy standpoint.

The Red Sox brought up Angel Sanchez for emergency use at SS. He should be back in Pawtucket shortly. Sanchez has a good glove but he doesn’t have much to offer offensively. Strictly a singles hitter with no speed, Sanchez isn’t likely to ever be more than a deep reserve at the big league level, if even that. He’s already 26, so the upside is limited at best. Pass.

Trevor Plouffe is up for the first time. The Twins tabbed Plouffe with the 20th overall pick in the 2004 draft, so he would have to qualify as a disappointment to this point. Plouffe was repeating AAA for the third time this season, so any enthusiasm about his .303 BA at Rochester has to be somewhat tempered. The Twins were much higher on Plouffe a couple of years ago, and there was hope he would develop into a clone of Jason Bartlett, but his game just hasn’t come around. His defense has remained shaky and he may not have the quickness to be a big league SS. He hasn’t shown enough power for 3B. The Twins evidently still like Plouffe, but that may simply be a case of stubbornness as they’re the team that invested in him. I would expect Plouffe to get sent back to AAA once J.J. Hardy is off the DL, and I’m not buying him as an everyday player down the road, so I’ll pass on even a minimum bid.

Jonathan Lucroy is up with the Brewers as their backup catcher thanks to the injury to Gregg Zaun. Lucroy may only be a temp for now, but he’s likely the Milwaukee backstop of the future. Lucroy jumped over Angel Salome on the organizational ladder this winter and there’s plenty to like here. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see Lucroy as an All-Star, but he profiles as a decent offensive catcher with enough pop in his bat to become a big league starter. There are still some questions about his defense, and that’s the one area that makes some scouts skeptical about him. But with the bat in his hand, Lucroy is already pretty advanced. He’s got a sharp eye and consistently makes good contact. I can see Lucroy as a .270, 15 HR big leaguer within a couple of years and that’s not bad at all for a catcher. I would definitely consider spending a few dollars here. He’s a good investment for the future, and with the Brewers on their way to being an afterthought in the NL Central, Lucroy could get a more prominent look come September.

Luis Durango will reportedly be brought up by the Padres on Tuesday to serve as a backup OF. I think I may have done a capsule on Durango last summer, but he’s worth another paragraph here. Durango is pure speed and has a chance to be a big time base stealer for the small ball Padres. He has zero power and his whole game is getting on first base. He went 6/11 and also walked twice in 13 plate appearances with the Padres last year, plus he stole two bases. Durango is a switch hitter who intentionally hits the ball on the ground, or just fouls off pitches till he gets a walk. He has no arm, but his defensive instincts are improving and he can obviously cover a ton of ground, making him ideal for spacious Petco Park. Durango is still learning how to use his speed as a base stealer, and gets thrown out too often right now. In other words, he is very much a work in progress and is strictly a buy now, earn later type. I would imagine Durango will be back to Portland once Kyle Blanks is off the DL, but if you can sneak through a $1-2 bid on him now, you might get a sweet payoff with his potential steals next season.

Zack Braddock is the guy I’m highest on among all this week’s recalls. Milwaukee brought up the 6’8″ lefty and he made an impressive debut on Sunday with two scoreless innings as the Brewers beat the Twins. Braddock has had a slew of injury issues dating back to Tommy John surgery while he was still in high school, so his durability is a concern. But since being transitioned from starter to reliever last season, Braddock has taken off. His strikeout numbers are off the charts and don’t be fooled by the 4.50 ERA he owned at AAA Nashville. Braddock had one nightmarish outing where he was tagged for eight runs in 2/3 of an inning. In his other appearances, he totaled 13.1 IP, and gave up just five hits and no runs, with 23 K’s. Braddock has just one save, so whether or not he can pitch the ninth inning is still unknown. But he’s definitely got potential to close and one would think he will have a chance to do that at some point, especially given the issues with the Milwaukee bullpen. Braddock still has control problems, but he’s only 22 and his potential in the pen is huge. You may not get much of a return on your dollar or two this season, but I would jump on Braddock right away for his future value possibilities.
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Not my best weekend ever on the diamond with some tough last at bat losses, but I’m still sitting at about +38 net units for the season at VegasInsider, and that’s way ahead of the entire field. In addition to selling a good number of plays there and at various other sites, I also deal with some serious players on a 1/1 basis. For more info on that option, drop me a line at cokin@cox.net.

Interleague play begins tonight, and it should be a terrific weekend of baseball. Yankees-Mets is always fun, despite the fact that the AL entry is clearly superior once again. The Red Sox have been Interleague monsters, racking up a superb 63-23 slate in their last 86 games against the National League. Boston’s series with the Phillies should be a barnburner. The Angels have struggled and remain below .500 but I think their series with the Cardinals will be worth watching. Rivalry battles between the Reds-Indians, Orioles-Nationals, Brewers-Twins and Giants-A’s provide lots of excitement for fans of those teams as well.

As much as I enjoy the Interleague action, I’d like it even more if there were a couple of tweaks added in. First off, an annual plea for Bud Selig to scrap the mindless All-Star gimmick that rewards the winner of an exhibition game home field for the World Series. A much better idea would be to use the annual Interleague duels as the battleground, with the winning league getting the edge come the Fall Classic.

Also, I’d like to see the DH rule flipped for Interleague play. Give the fans in NL cities the chance to watch a home game with the designated hitter, have the pitchers hit in the American League home games. The idea of Interleague play was innovative and has proven to be immensely successful. Why not go a couple steps further and give all the fans something I’m sure they’d find fascinating.
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2-1 on my Thursday plays for those who list starting pitchers, 3-1 for those who simply play action. The change was in the Angels-White Sox game, where it was originally supposed to be Santana-Buehrle, but the Chisox moved Jake Peavy up one day and will use Buehrle on Friday against the Marlins.

I’m just a little shy of the plus 40 net units mark for the season, and that’s with all plays being graded as one-unit selections. That’s about as good as it gets, and needless to say, I’m brimming with confidence these days. Want to be on the same games I’m playing myself each day? Just drop a line to my personal email, which is cokin@cox.net and I’ll tell you all about it.

Enjoy the action this weekend, and I’m back with the prospect recall update on Monday.

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the surprise teams to date this season. They’re playing with plenty of fire, winning lots of close games in dramatic fashion, and there actually seems to be some life in a franchise that has been pretty awful for the last several seasons.

But as I watched the Reds lose a tough game with the Braves on Wednesday night, I realized why this team will probably fade away and become just an afterthought before too long. It’s the guy in the dugout. Dusty Baker seems like a good guy and I believe he’s probably a very solid clubhouse leader. But when it comes to game strategy, he still just good ol’ Du(mb)sty.

Here’s the scenario. The Reds had trailed the entire game against Atlanta. The Braves grabbed an early lead and eventually built it to 4-0 heading into the last couple of frames. True to their recent form, the Reds came roaring back, scoring three runs in the eighth and then knotting the game in the ninth when Chris Heisey bombed a leadoff homer off Braves closer Billy Wagner.

Next up, Orlando Cabrera. He singles to center field, and the Reds now have the lead runner on with nobody out and Brandon Phillips stepping in.

The first thought that went through my mind at this point was that the Braves would play bunt defense and that Phillips should absolutely be hitting away. I’m not anti-bunt in the right spots, but this simply was not one of them. Yeah, I know, “the book” says tie game, ninth inning, you bunt and move the lead run into scoring position. But there are times when “the book” should be ignored and this was clearly one of those times.

Wagner has been around forever and he’s a great closer. But he’d just blown the save two batters prior and had subsequently given up the hit to Cabrera. Now he’s got to face Phillips, and while it’s just a small sample, Phillips has handled Wagner more than Wagner has handled Phillips. Phillips is also a very good hitter against hard throwing lefties. In other words, giving away an out in this situation is the wrong move. A good manager is going to think outside the box here and not take the bat out of one of better offensive player’s hands.

Of course, Du(mb)sty went right by the book. He had Phillips bunt. In doing so, he pretty much then also took the bat out of Joey Votto’s hands, as Wagner simply pitched around Cincy’s best hitter. Wagner then K’d Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce, and that was that. The Braves put together a pair of hits in the bottom of the ninth, including a vicious line drive game winner by Jason Heyward, and the Reds walked off the field with a tough loss.

I have seen this identical scenario unfold similarly about one million times, or at least it seems that way. The managers with no imagination always play it the same way, regardless of how the situation unfolded to that point and completely disregarding which portion of the batting order is coming up. The better managers, the ones that actually win, size up each situation individually and make a decision. I’m not saying that sacrificing here was a guaranteed loser, but I thought that without question it was the wrong move. But in Du(mb)sty’s case, it was entirely predictable. Just like it always is.
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Lost two of three on Wednesday, but they were all underdogs, so the liability for the day was less than one unit. Still firing on all cylinders, so no better time to be on my plays than right now. Find out more by dropping me a line at: cokin@cox.net.

The free play was on the Padres, and that was a winner. Thursday’s comp opinion on tape at 1-888-712-6800.

Tough decision as to who I should write about today. On the one hand, there’s the firestorm surrounding temperamental Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez. On the other, there’s what appears to be a rough swan song for a future Hall of Fame member, as the curtain comes down on the great career of Trevor Hoffman. Best move is to offer a quick comment or two on each player.

Hanley Ramirez is an awesome talent. He’s a pure five-tool player and I’d certainly rate him as one of the ten best players in the game today. But he’s got issues, and they’re apparently not going away anytime soon. The latest Ramirez incident occurred on Monday night, when he was yanked by Florida manager Fredi Gonzalez after clearly failing to hustle after a ball that had gotten away. Whether or not Ramirez was mildly hurt after being hit on the ankle earlier is of no consequence. There is simply no question that he was loafing and he got caught.

Gonzalez has made it clear that Ramirez will be benched until such time as he explains his actions to his teammates. To put it very simply, Ramirez is reacting to his punishment like a spoiled child, ripping the entire Marlins organization and aggravating his teammates in the process. I have no idea how this will play out, but let’s make no mistake, this is far from an isolated incident for Ramirez. He had behavioral problems while climbing the Boston organizational ladder, and while I had never felt as though that played any role in his being the centerpiece of a major deal with the Marlins that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Beantown, now I’m starting to wonder. He’s had spats in Miami as well, including a very public shouting match with Dan Uggla late last season.

Ramirez needs to grow up. He’s got all the talent in the world, but there’s no excuse for being a lousy teammate. Given the fact that Ramirez is about the only highly paid member of the Marlins, and knowing that team’s well documented tendency to cut payroll wherever possible, is it possible the Marlins might start shopping him? I’ll put that in the long shot category for now, but if he’s also going to destroy the chemistry on a team he’s supposed to be leading, it’s surely not an impossibility.

The Trevor Hoffman situation is entirely different. Hoffman has been a class act throughout his entire career and he’s one of the all-time great closers. Unfortunately, it looks as though the sand has run out of the hourglass for Hoffman. He looked pretty shopworn by the end of the 2008 campaign and there were few complaints when the Padres let him leave for Milwaukee following that season. Hoffman enjoyed a brilliant renaissance last year and actually stunned me with how well he pitched for the Brewers. But it has been an utter disaster for Hoffman this season. The numbers are not just awful, they’re staggering. And it’s not likely just a bad stretch. Hoffman has no velocity anymore, but worse, he has also lost his command. Bluntly stated, he’s serving up meatballs and is getting absolutely hammered.

I’m sure Hoffman still believes he can get people out. That’s the nature of the pro athlete. But the manager has to know better. I said weeks ago that the Brewers needed to move Carlos Villanueva into the ninth-inning role and either let Hoffman go or explain to him that he’d have to accept a lower leverage role until such time as he showed the ability to get outs again. But manager Ken Macha never made that move, instead choosing to effectively cost his team potential victories by showing Hoffman too much respect. Sorry, but there’s no room for sentimentality. The skipper’s job is to win games and Macha has clearly not given his players the best opportunity to do exactly that. What makes this even more bizarre to me is that Macha was likely on the hot seat to begin with entering this season because of the pitching miseries of last season, and it looks to me like he’s sealing his own fate with his refusal to make the right move regarding Hoffman. Plus, by allowing Hoffman to continue getting demolished, he’s actually managed to basically humiliate a legit superstar who deserved a far better fate.
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Another good day for me with my personal plays, winning with the Reds and Braves, losing with the Royals. The beat goes on in what has been a phenomenal start to the season. Daily free plays are on tape at 1-888-712-6800 and for those interested in obtaining my best bets each day directly from me, leave your contact info here or drop me a line at: cokin@cox.net.

There’s a fine line between aggressiveness and reckless abandon. Unfortunately for the Arizona Diamondbacks, they evidently can’t see that line and the result is that this team is almost certainly headed for another lousy campaign and a seat on the sidelines as far as the NL West chase is concerned.

If there’s one thing that has become laughably predictable for the Diamondbacks, it’s that they’re going to swing and miss a whole lot. The Snakes struck out as a team 1287 times in 2008. They managed to somehow exceed that whopping number last year, whiffing on an astounding 1298 occasions. You’d think that the organization’s brain trust would realize that they need to make a change in philosophy and attempt to put a more disciplined entry together, right? Forget about that. Through the first 39 games of the 2010 campaign, the Diamondbacks have incredibly increased their K rate, with a mind numbing 362 strikeout victims already. In other words, they’re actually obliterating the already alarming ratios of the past couple of seasons.

I don’t have any problem with a team having a few big bangers who swing and miss frequently but deliver big time production. But the D-Backs are absolutely loaded with guys who just don’t make contact. And what’s amazing to me is that they keep adding similar pieces. Sorry, but while Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson are both solid enough talents, they were both lousy fits on a team already overflowing with big swingers. Sure enough, LaRoche and Johnson are delivering some sock, but they’re also both striking out at very high rates. Considering that Arizona was already fielding a lineup including Justin Upton, Chris Young and the unrivaled K king in Mark Reynolds, I just could not see how adding two more free swingers made any sense. Through roughly the first quarter of the season, that viewpoint has only become stronger.

Of course, the lack of discipline on offense doesn’t absolve the pitching staff from blame. The starters have not been good, and the bullpen has been beyond abysmal. Check out these staggering statistics. Through Monday night’s game, the pen has worked 105.1 innings. They have collectively surrendered 126 hits and 62 walks. Those embarrassing numbers have led to 98 runs allowed, including 90 earned runs for a bullpen ERA of 7.69.

Put it all together and it’s a cinch to comprehend why the Diamondbacks are dead last in the NL West, and I don’t see how much improvement can be expected. The big league roster has too many similar players on offense, there aren’t nearly enough legitimate big league arms, and if you’re looking for help on the horizon, it’s simply not there.

Jarrod Parker is rated as the organization’s top prospect, but the talented righty is out for the entire 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. So he’s likely a non-factor until at least the 2012 campaign. 1B Bobby Borchering, last year’s top draft choice, struggled in rookie ball and is off to a sluggish start in Low-A. And surprise, surprise, he’s striking out nearly 25% of the time, so he’s yet another position player cut from the same mold as we’re used to seeing. Brandon Allen isn’t hitting at lick at AAA Reno, and while I hate to be redundant, he’s striking out at a ridiculous rate. 3B prospect A.J. Pollock is on the sidelines for 2-3 months following elbow surgery. And those are the top prospects in an farm system generally recognized to be one of the weakest in the game.

It’s painfully clear to me that the Diamondbacks are a real mess from top to bottom. The easy way out is to talk about how things might be different had Brandon Webb not gotten hurt. That’s simply not the case. Sure, the Snakes would be better with their ace, but using Webb’s injury issues as even a minimal excuse for the team’s miseries is ludicrous. The bottom line is that this is an organization that needs to come up with a different philosophy than the one that’s currently in place. Until that time, the Diamondbacks are doomed to mediocrity and what could end up being a very lengthy stay at the bottom of the NL West.
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VegasInsider update: Based on a flat $100 per selection, I’m now ahead $3614 for the season, which has me substantially ahead of the closest competitor. You can purchase a good number of my plays at that site, or if you’d like to deal directly with me, simply drop me a line at: cokin@cox.net.

I had a terrific week with my plays overall, but had to settle for a 1-2 Sunday. The Dodgers got the money for me, but I lost a tough one with the Astros and had a very disappointing result on the Pirates. That one hurt, as the Bucs were huge underdogs, so effectively the 4-3 loss created a swing of three units in the wrong direction. The Pirates looked like winners leading 3-1 into the seventh inning, but some really poor work behind the plate by Ryan Doumit basically gave the game to the Cubs. Aggravating loser for sure, but nonetheless, the overall week was outstanding once again and I’m feeling as though I’m still very much in the zone.

For info on getting my personal plays directly from me, just fire off an email to cokin@cox.net.

On to the Monday rundown, which takes a look at rookies either being called up for the first time or guys that I have simply not covered in any past blogs. This week, there are several players to report on, so I’m going to be pretty brief for the most part… with one notable exception.

Drew Storen is that exception. The Nationals drafted Storen with the second of their first-round picks in last year’s draft. He was taken that high for two reasons. One was signability, and sure enough, Storen signed almost immediately. The second and perhaps more compelling reason was the organization’s belief that Storen was nearly big-league ready coming out of Stanford. Based on his performance to date at each progressive level, the Nationals struck gold with this pick. They not only got Storen for a below-slot bonus, but he sure looks like the real deal. Despite an array of quality pitches that would likely be enough to allow Storen a future as a starting pitcher, he is being counted on to eventually be the long term closer for Washington. In fact, heading into spring training, the thought was that because of what looked like a very weak closer situation for the Nats, Storen might be called upon to take over that role by the beginning of June. While Storen’s promotion is actually right on or even ahead of schedule, the Nationals have the luxury of easing him into the bullpen mix. Matt Capps has been tremendous closing games, and Tyler Clippard has been remarkably opportunistic in a setup role. So one should not expect to see Storen in high leverage situations right away. Nevertheless, he’s almost a can’t miss closer down the road. For those playing in annual fantasy leagues, Storen is probably not worth taking, as his scoring contributions this season are likely limited. Obviously, he is worth an investment in auction leagues, but unless your league is populated by a bunch of dummies, he was almost certainly purchased at your draft. But if you’re playing keeper and Storen is available, he’s worth grabbing so long as you’re not a contender who would have to drop a valuable player to free up space.

The Texas Rangers called up a pair of pitchers, although I don’t expect Guilleromo Moscoso nor Pedro Strop to stick around for long. Each has considerable upside, but neither is worth investing in presently.

John Axford got a cup of coffee with Milwaukee late last season and in fact recorded a save in the final game of the season. He’s a very hard thrower who can be overpowering, but Axford has control problems. If he ever gets past that problem, Axford could have closer potential. But he’s already 27, so more likely his future is as a middle reliever with little fantasy value.

The Tigers recalled OF Casper Wells and he’s probably only up for a cameo. Wells has some power, but he strikes out too much, and hasn’t hit for average. His defense is fine and he’s versatile enough to play anywhere in the OF, but I don’t see Wells being a regular at any point in the foreseeable future.

Blake Wood is getting his first taste of the big leagues with the Royals. Wood had not shown a great deal progressing through the minor league chain, until this season when the Royals moved him to the Omaha bullpen. He seems to be transitioning well to this role, and has a chance to carve out a place in the KC bullpen. But I don’t see Wood as having an especially high ceiling, so his profile is very limited.

The Diamondbacks have all kinds of need in what has been an absolutely horrendous bullpen, so Carlos Rosa has a chance to become a real contributor in short order. Rosa was a highly regarded prospect for KC before injuries stymied his progress. But this guy does have two quality pitches with his fastball and slider, and given the Royals own bullpen miseries, I have no idea why they dealt him to Arizona recently. Of course, we’re talking the Royals, and we all know that logic hasn’t been a word associated with that organization for many years. Rosa doesn’t really profile as a prototypical closer, but with the entire ‘Zona bullpen getting annihilated regularly, nothing seems far fetched at this point. Rosa is probably worth a dollar or two in a deep auction league just on the off chance he could end up with a meaningful role in the Snakes bullpen.

Chris Carter is up with the Mets, and has a good chance to become their primary lefty bat off the bench as a pinch-hitter. Carter can hit, and he has moderate power. But he’s also a player without a real position and that poor defense means that he’s little more than DH material if he’s ever to become a regular. Carter has some value with his stick in the real game, but I can’t see him contributing anything of value on the fantasy front.

The Yankees promoted Ivan Nova from AAA, where he’s enjoyed a stellar start to the season. Nova will steal a few innings out of the pen for now, although he does project as insurance for back of the rotation should an injury occur. He’s not a dominating pitcher, but when he keeps the ball down in the zone, his stuff generates lots of ground balls. Simply a roster filler for now, and not really the type of pitcher who ever figures to be in demand for fantasy players.

By the way, if you have a fantasy or gambling-related question, feel free to ask away and I’ll try and provide an answer. Back on Tuesday with a take on why things seems to be going backwards for the Diamondbacks.

Big win on Thursday as I nailed two of my three baseball plays. The reason it was a big win was the Astros, who cashed a big underdog ticket as finished off a surprising sweep of the Cardinals. I was also on the Padres, and they paid a nice price as well as Mat Latos nearly pitched a perfect game while also driving in the only run of the contest. The loser was the Indians, who looked good early with a 3-0 lead and made things interesting in the final frame before losing to the Royals in Trey Hillman’s swan song as skipper. I also gave out the Celtics in the NBA game to complete another strong day. Right now, I’m running away with the competition at VegasInsider, piling up a net profit of $3809 already in baseball based on a flat $100 per play.

For those of you who aren’t opposed to the idea of paying someone to give advice on what to play each day, you can get the same exact stuff I’m on myself, minus any of the bells, whistles and gimmicks. (In other words, on my own plays I don’t use any star ratings. It’s either worth a bet or it’s not.) Just drop me a line at cokin@cox.net for info.

I’m going to post my free opinion for Friday here. These are normally on tape each day at 1-888-712-6800 but I will occasionally do some analysis here. Bear in mind this is NOT a game I’ll be playing myself. It just didn’t make the cut, but I do think there’s a little value on one side of tonight’s Rangers-Blue Jays game.

The scheduling dynamics favor Toronto, as they had Thursday off while Texas was eking out a 2-1, 12 inning win over the A’s. And it was a long series for Texas, as the two teams played 34 innings over three days. Thus, the Rangers bullpen figures to be wearier than their Toronto counterparts.

The tough part of this one is that the Rangers have a potential murderer’s row against southpaws, and Toronto is featuring lefty Brett Cecil tonight. Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Vlad Guerrero came make life miserable for any portsider. And the Rangers are getting Nelson Cruz back as well, although the slugging RF actually hits righties better. I’d better include Josh Hamilton in this rundown as well, as he’s starting to swing the bat well, although Hamilton’s numbers against lefties are mediocre. Nevertheless, that’s a nasty lineup for any pitcher to deal with. Plus, Rich Harden has seemingly solved the control issues that had been plaguing him over his first handful of starts. Harden has avoided ridiculously high early pitch counts in these last two outings, and that has enabled him to pitch more effectively while also going deeper into games.

But I’m going to have to lean to the home team tonight. In addition to the obvious scheduling edge, I also like what I’m seeing from Brett Cecil. He’s got a chance to be a very solid pitcher if he can stay healthy. Cecil has been touching 94 on his four-seamer, and his two-seam fastball is arriving at 88-90 as well. I also like Cecil’s two-plane slider that he throws in the low 80′s. Plus, like many lefties, Cecil has a deceptive delivery and he does a good job of hiding the ball. The more I see of him, the more I believe he has the stuff to be a solid #2 starter, and he could well become a legit ace as he gains experience. He’s got the ability to get plenty of K’s, and he’ll also generate lots of grounders when he commands his pitches well. The one thing he still needs to work on is a changeup that is not all that refined just yet, but Cecil is definitely starting to show why he was a hot commodity in the ’07 draft. Let’s also give the Blue Jays credit for recognizing Cecil’s potential as a starter after a college career spent mostly in the bullpen.

The Texas bats are definitely a concern here. But Harden remains a mostly six-inning type at this point, and I would not be surprised to see Cecil pitch him to at least a stalemate tonight. The potential bullpen fatigue for the Rangers gives Toronto a late-inning advantage, so my free play for Friday night is on the Blue Jays.

My baseball rampage continued on Wednesday with another very strong day. I’m pulling away from the field right now in the competition at VegasInsider, but more importantly, I’m piling up the profits for my clients, and obviously for myself. No question, I’ve enjoyed more fortunate wins than bad beats in the tossup plays, and that always helps. But I’m also in a real good zone right now, and I can tell you from years of experience the decision-making process is a whole lot easier when you’re winning than when it’s going in the opposite direction.

My daily free opinions are on tape at 1-888-712-6800. Note that these are NOT actual selections. They’re games where I have a lean, but not a strong enough stance for the game to make the cut as a personal play. But over the long haul they win more than they lose, and you can get a little insight into some factors that are key to me when sizing up a game.

As for the actual selections, the best move if you want the same stuff I’m on myself is to drop me a line at my personal email, which is cokin@cox.net.
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On to the saga in Mariners country, which should be titled “Sleeping In Seattle” or something along those lines. As you’re no doubt aware by now, Ken Griffey Jr. was supposedly unable to be used as a pinch-hitter in a recent game because he was evidently asleep in the clubhouse.

Let’s clear up a couple of things right off the bat. When I was much younger, back in my days in Rhode Island, I was pretty tight with the old AHL team back there. I practically lived in the old Rhode Island Auditorium, home of the Reds, and I had my run of the joint. Hey, why go to school when you can hang out at the hockey rink all day? I also traveled with the team when I was able to, and I learned one valuable lesson early on in that experience. Simply stated, what happens here stays here. Maybe this is old school on my part, but if you were part of the team, even if not one of the players, you kept your mouth shut to outsiders about anything that happened within the confines of that locker room.

The reason I mention this is that I can recall numerous occasions where things happened that the fans had no clue about. I still remember one player who would regularly send someone to a concession stand during the game to get him a hot dog and a beer, which he would consume between periods in a bathroom stall so the coach wouldn’t find out. Even though we’re talking stuff that happened decades ago, I still don’t share the post-game stuff that took place on a constant basis. What happened there stayed there.

Did I ever see anyone sleeping? Only once that I can recall, and that was a player who was not feeling well on this particular night. But I can guarantee you that Ken Griffey Jr. is not the first player to be out of the lineup for a particular game that has decided to catch 40 winks while the game is being played. Let’s face it, the routine can get pretty mundane at times, so I’m not treating this as some shocking incident that needs to be covered from every angle. In fact, it should never have been reported at all.

I’m not blaming the reporter who first broke the story. He got the info and did his job at that point. My problem is with the unknown Mariner that broke the first rule of being on a team and gave the story to an outsider. That is WAY out of line, and that’s what I believe has Griffey, Mike Sweeney and other members of the Mariners, especially the veterans, so upset.

Do I believe Junior was sleeping? Yes. Was that the right thing for him to be doing during a game? No, absolutely not. But for someone to go outside the team and effectively throw Griffey under the bus to the media is completely unacceptable. If that’s an old school attitude, so be it. In this case, it’s the correct attitude. Even if Griffey rubs some teammates the wrong way, as he apparently did during his Cincinnati days, it’s something that needs to remain a team-only matter. That’s part of what playing on a team is all about.

As I’m writing this, the clubhouse tattler is still unknown. I’m quite sure we’ll never know for sure who committed the offense, as when his identity becomes known to team members, I doubt any of us will hear about it. But make no mistake, I do believe the team will find out at some point. And if there’s a trade consummated sometime soon that involves a member of the current Mariners roster, my money will be on that player as the most likely suspect.

As for Griffey, it looks like it’s about over for one of the game’s all-time greats. He just can’t get it done anymore, and if the Mariners gave him a roster spot to sell a few extra tickets this season following his horrendous 2009 campaign, well, shame on them. And now the organization is really boxed into a corner. Had this news not surfaced, a quiet and dignified release of Griffey would have surprised no one and would not have been humiliating. Now they can’t do it, at least not right now. They can thank the clubhouse rat for creating this situation as well.