Inside the Lines: Week 11 NFL Style

Disclaimer: These are the games as I see them currently, and a smart bettor knows that as the games near, things change. The rule of sports gambling: never be a gambler.

Get ‘em while they’re hot!

Pittsburgh(-10) at Kansas City

No reason the Steel Curtain struggles in this game. Kansas City’s already maligned offense(15 PPG) just lost Dwayne Bowe and Larry Johnson in the same week. They’re offense currently looks like this: Matt Cassel behind center, Jamaal Charles handling the rock, and Terrence Copper/Bobby Wade split out wide. The Tight End, Sean Ryan, has eight catches on the season. I don’t see how Kansas City will score against Pittsburgh, even if Polamalu is banged up. Chiefs defense is a little better than one would imagine, but they’re not opportunistic – 10 turnovers on the entire season. I give this bet a whopping five stars, with the only anxiety stemming from the Chiefs usual “We’ll show up twice a year at Arrowhead,” M.O.

Indianapolis +1 at Baltimore

Some lines have already adjusted to this ridiculous spread and have the Colts as a point favorite; I still love them either way. Baltimore looked terrible last week against Cleveland, and pretty much just let Cleveland’s complete ineptness as a team run it’s course. Manning absolutely dissects defenses, and Baltimore’s stout defense won’t even be the best on the field come Sunday. The Colts can play hard nosed defense, and I’ve said since day one Joe Flacco isn’t the Quarterback he’s been made out to be. The Colts will have more trouble with the Texans and Titans the two weeks after then today, and I’m giving this five stars.

Solid Play

Detroit -3 1/2 vs. Cleveland

A lot can be said about the poor play from the Lions on both sides of the ball, but the 2009 Cleveland Browns are in the running for worst team of this decade. The defense plays with some heart, which has bumped this from a top tier bet. Cleveland’s already pathetic offense just lost Joshua Cribbs, their only dynamic player. Without him, the offense is focused around Mohamed Massaquoi, and quite frankly that scares no one. The Lions have Calvin Johnson finally back, and he could be the deciding factor in this game. Four stars on this one.

Worth Glancing At

Oakland +11 vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati finally proves they’re a real contender by beating Pittsburgh in the Steel City, and show no signs of slowing down. However, this is the classic letdown game, as they travel to the west coast to take on a team that *sometimes* plays well at home, but there’s even more reasons I am slightly favoring the black and gold:

• Bruce Gradkowski will start in favor of JaMarcus Russell on Sunday.
• Cedric Benson, the key cog in the Bengals running game, will either play limited or be completely out after injuring his hip last week.
• The Raiders have two running backs who have shown up at different points this season, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Both are capable of 100 yard games, and while the Bengals defense is tough, keeping the offense off the field is key.