Inside the Lines: Thanksgiving Edition

Disclaimer: These are the games as I see them currently, and a smart bettor knows that as the games near, things change. The rule of sports gambling: never be a gambler.

Is there anything better than Football on Thanksgiving? Highly doubtful. Most NFL fans can recall the most arbitrary of memories just because it was spent watching games with the loved ones.

The Thanksigiving Day games are, for lack of better words, awful. Two games feature bottom three teams in Detroit and Oakland against far superior talent, and the third could be the most lopsided of them all – the Denver train looks all but derailed at this point. Glancing at the lines, they’re not all that appealing, but I’ll offer some quick insight. Before we get into it, here’s how the schedule looks.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 12:30 PM EST on Fox

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 PM EST on CBS

New York Giants at Denver Broncos, 8:20 PM EST on NFL Network

———————————————————————————————

Worth Glancing At (3 Stars)

Oakland + 14.5 at Dallas

Well, everything I said about Oakland  seemed to be dead on. The team played inspired under journeyman Bruce Gradkowski, and while he’s a pretty substandard NFL talent, he’s worlds better than JaMarcus Russell. Nnamdi Asomugha and crew shut down the upstart Benglas attack,  but have an equally difficult task in confining Dallas this week.

The ‘Boys have really been hit or miss all year, but last week’s debacle against Washington wasn’t all that mystifying. The Redskins defense has been stellar all year, and Dallas still hasn’t found rhythm or identity on the offensive side of the ball.

Unfortunately for Tony Romo and crew, Oakland doesn’t seem ready to completely roll over this year. The Cowboys defense has been fantastic and Oakland is going to struggle on offense for a while, but if this game becomes a puntathon, I like Oakland to cover the two score line. There’s too much talent on the defensive side of the ball, and if Michael Bush and Justin Fargas can get the ground game going, Gradkowski could generate a bit of a passing attack and keep Dallas’ defense honest.  Two scores and the hook might be a little generous for America’s team.

Keep The Games Interesting3 Stars)

Green Bay -10 1/2 at Detroit

Nothing about this game is appealing on the field, and this once highly anticipated match-up is more fizzle than pop lately. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has been as good as any QB in the NFL this year, but their defense is rough around the edges and you never know what Ryan Grant is going to show up in the Packers backfield. Detroit’s incredible comeback last week against Cleveland was due in large part to the proverbial coming of age of first overall pick Matthew Stafford, who had a career day and sealed the victory with a perfectly timed post route as time expired.

With that said, Stafford’s dislocated left shoulder in the final minute of Sunday’s game will keep him out of action, meaning Daunte Culpepper will get the start. Culpepper still has a little juice left, but Calvin Johnson, the all-world wideout for Detroit is also unlikely to be activated. All this means is that the Detroit offense will struggle all night, and Green Bay should coast easily.

Editor Note – Apparently Detroit went all Bill Belichick on us and started BOTH Calvin and Matt, even though both were expected to be out. I hope the Lions get pounded for this.

If both don’t play, I love Green Bay and the points.

Keep The Games Interesting (2 Stars)

New York – 6 at Denver

The reason why this isn’t a one star game is simple; I’m completely banking on the fact that Denver is just a car crash waiting to happen. Their offense was pathetic last week against San Diego, and it doesn’t get any easier against a Giants defense that got Aaron Ross back last week. Denver is surprisingly going to be warmer than usual for this time of year, so I look for the G-Men to come out with a balanced attack against a Denver team that was pretty turnover happy last week. Kyle Orton reverted to his old self, throwing untimely slant routes and missing corner patterns all over the field. Denver’s defense is pretty good considering what kind of situation they were put into last week, but I still like the G Men in this game. Risky play either way if you’re a betting man.

————————————————————————————————-

Just an FYI: The Thursday Night Football game in the college world features the Texas Longhorns(-21) at Texas A&M. The longstanding rivalry still has some flavor, and playing in College Station offers a little intrigue. Colt McCoy is a loser against the Aggies in his career, but the Longhorns defense should be able to take care of things Thursday night.